Trend of S-curve evolution

Trend of S-curve evolution: trend of engineering system evolution located at the top position in the trends hierarchy. According to it, as an engineering system evolves, the evolution of each main parameter of value (MPV) describes an S-shaped curve in time.

Overview

In the context of each MPV, of a technical system evolves along an S-curve, passing through the following stages:

Stage 1:	a “newborn” system has not yet entered the market and may exist only as an idea, sketch, or prototype.
Stage 2:	a stage of intensive growth and expansion – the system moves into mass production.
Stage 3:	the mature system is still in mass production, but it reaches one or several development limits.
Stage 4:	the system becomes non-utilitarian, or it continues to function only in highly specialized fields or within a supersystem. It is the phase of decline.

If the system survives stage 1, it enters the transitional phase, considered in TRIZ as a separate stage (in fact it is the very end of stage 1). This phase is crucial in the system’s lifetime, as it transitions from lab development to market entry. The risk of market rejection is high, and the newly developed system often faces its strongest competition, contending with both other emerging systems and established, mature ones.

The trend of the S-curve evolution is considered the overarching law, placing it at the very top of the hierarchy of trends of engineering systems evolution (TESE).

For a system to evolve along the S-curve, its value – within the context of a given MPV – must continuously increase. That’s why the trend of increasing value directly drives the S-curve trend. All other trends stem from it, making them its sub-trends.

In other words, when a system evolves according to any given trend, it directly leads to an increase in system value, thereby moving the system forward along its S-curve.

Trend of S-curve evolution

Overview

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